By Tukur Buratai
In a world quick to predict national failure, few countries have endured more scrutiny than Nigeria. From think-tank forecasts to global risk assessments, the country is often portrayed as teetering on the edge. Yet, beneath these narratives lies a deeper truth—Nigeria’s extraordinary resilience.
In a recent reflection posted on his Facebook page, former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai (rtd.), argues that the idea of Nigeria as a potential failed state is not only inaccurate but a fundamental misunderstanding of its history and its destiny. For Buratai, Nigeria is not crumbling—it is rising.
A Nation Shaped by Giants
Buratai begins by invoking the spirit of Nigeria’s founding fathers—Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Sir Ahmadu Bello, and Chief Obafemi Awolowo—leaders whose vision helped carve a nation out of colonial rule. Their legacy, he notes, created a foundation that no crisis has ever completely shaken.
From post-independence turbulence to military incursion and back to democracy, Nigeria has repeatedly pulled back from the brink. Military leaders like Gen. Yakubu Gowon and Gen. Murtala Mohammed steered the country through nation-defining moments, while Chief Olusegun Obasanjo twice restored political stability—first in 1979 and again in 1999.
Today, Buratai observes, Nigeria is seeing the rise of a new generation of leaders—young, connected, innovative, and more accountable to citizens who are vocal and increasingly conscious of their power. Their commitment to unity and national progress, he insists, makes the idea of a collapsing Nigeria “inconceivable.”
Economy: Hardship, Yes — but Also Immense Opportunity
Buratai acknowledges the economic turbulence facing the nation, but he cautions against interpreting temporary difficulty as long-term decline. Since independence, Nigeria has transformed from a primarily agrarian society to Africa’s largest economy.
He highlights several underutilized strengths:
Human capital—a youthful population and a highly skilled diaspora
Agricultural capacity—enough arable land to feed West Africa
Solid mineral wealth—from gold to lithium and iron ore
Renewable energy potential—sunlight strong enough to power industries
Creative and digital innovation—Nollywood, Afrobeats, and a booming tech sector
For Buratai, these assets guarantee that Nigeria’s economic future remains bright. The ongoing diversification away from oil, though slow and painful, is laying the groundwork for a knowledge-driven and resilient economy.
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Security and Infrastructure: A Nation in Transition
Nigeria’s security challenges—Boko Haram, ISWAP, banditry, and separatist agitations—remain a national concern. But Buratai argues that these struggles represent a phase of renewal, not collapse.
He notes that Boko Haram, once feared for its territorial control, has been significantly degraded from its peak in 2014–2015 due to years of tactical and strategic adjustments. The armed forces, he insists, are more retooled and revitalized than many acknowledge.
On infrastructure, Buratai highlights what he calls “quiet revolutions”—railway revival projects, major road expansions, airport modernization programs, and the massive Dangote Refinery, now the largest single-train refinery on earth. These developments, he suggests, point to a nation investing aggressively in its long-term foundations.
The Real Strength: The Nigerian Spirit
Beyond institutions, policies, and economics, Buratai identifies the Nigerian people as the country’s most powerful engine of survival.
He recounts moments that tested the nation's soul:
The civil war of 1967–1970
Structural Adjustment hardships of the 1980s
Pro-democracy struggles that ended military rule
The #EndSARS youth movement demanding transparency
And today’s economic trials
Despite everything, Nigerians continue to innovate, hustle, survive, and support one another through communal systems like esusu and grassroots solidarity.
“This social capital,” Buratai writes, “is the bedrock upon which the nation’s future is secured.”
A Message to the West: Stop Predicting Collapse—Start Building Partnerships
Buratai’s feature sharply criticizes international observers who constantly forecast Nigeria’s doom. He warns that such narratives distract from the opportunities Nigeria presents and risk undermining global cooperation.
He calls for:
1. Technology Transfer—especially in green energy and digital infrastructure
2. Investment, Not Aid—to unlock Nigeria’s private sector potential
3. Collaborative Security—rooted in respect for Nigeria’s sovereignty
The West, he argues, must stop preparing for Nigeria’s collapse and start preparing for Nigeria’s rise.
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Recommendations for a Stronger Nigeria and a Stronger Africa
Buratai outlines a three-level plan:
For Nigeria
Forge a new patriotism focused on merit and national service
Deepen economic diversification with targeted investment funds
Expand community-based security under national coordination
For Developed Nations
Shift to partnership-based engagement
Reform global financial institutions
Elevate Nigerian creativity and innovation on global platforms
For Africa
Strengthen AfCFTA to build continental self-reliance
Share security and anti-corruption practices
Assert collective power in global negotiations
Conclusion: A Nation Destined to Rise
Buratai concludes with conviction: Nigeria will not fail—not now, not ever.
“Our current trials,” he writes, “are the furnace in which a stronger, more united, and self-reliant nation is being forged.”
For him, the world must begin to see Nigeria not as a volatile experiment but as a rising global force whose trajectory is upward.
And in his final words, he echoes a sentiment shared by millions across the country:
“We will not fail. We are rising.”
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